Initial commit: Predictalytics solution

Clean Architecture .NET 8 solution (Domain/Application/Infrastructure/Api/Worker/WinFormsHost)
for analyzing Polymarket traders for copytrading/strategy-replication candidates.

Includes EF Core InitialBaseline migration and DB secrets removed from source/config
in preparation for version control.

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/Alert.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+using Predictalytics.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// An alert triggered by the system based on configurable rules.
+/// </summary>
+public class Alert
+{
+    public int Id { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Type of alert.</summary>
+    public AlertType Type { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Platform where the triggering event occurred.</summary>
+    public PlatformType Platform { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Optional reference to the trader who triggered this alert.</summary>
+    public int? TraderId { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Alert title / headline.</summary>
+    public string Title { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Detailed message describing the alert.</summary>
+    public string Message { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Severity: 1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High, 4=Critical.</summary>
+    public int Severity { get; set; } = 1;
+
+    /// <summary>Whether the alert has been read/acknowledged.</summary>
+    public bool IsRead { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When the alert was created.</summary>
+    public DateTime CreatedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
+    // Navigation
+    public Trader? Trader { get; set; }
+}

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/AnalyticsEntities.cs

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+using System.ComponentModel.DataAnnotations;
+using System.ComponentModel.DataAnnotations.Schema;
+
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+public class TraderAnalytics
+{
+    [Key, ForeignKey("Trader")]
+    public int TraderId { get; set; }
+
+    public DateTime LastCalculatedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
+    public decimal OverallPnL { get; set; }
+    public decimal OverallWinRate { get; set; }
+
+    public decimal PnL30d { get; set; }
+    public decimal WinRate30d { get; set; }
+
+    public decimal PnL7d { get; set; }
+    public decimal WinRate7d { get; set; }
+
+    public decimal PnL24h { get; set; }
+    public decimal WinRate24h { get; set; }
+
+    // Navigation
+    public virtual Trader Trader { get; set; } = null!;
+}
+
+public class MarketAnalytics
+{
+    [Key, ForeignKey("Market")]
+    public int MarketId { get; set; }
+
+    public DateTime LastCalculatedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
+    public decimal BotActivityScore { get; set; }
+    public int UniqueTradersCount { get; set; }
+    public decimal AverageTradeSize { get; set; }
+
+    // Navigation
+    public virtual Market Market { get; set; } = null!;
+}

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/Market.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+using Predictalytics.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Represents a prediction market (event/question).
+/// </summary>
+public class Market
+{
+    public int Id { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Platform this market belongs to.</summary>
+    public PlatformType Platform { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Platform-specific market identifier (conditionId on Polymarket).</summary>
+    public string PlatformMarketId { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>URL-friendly slug for the market.</summary>
+    public string MarketSlug { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>URL-friendly slug for the parent event.</summary>
+    public string EventSlug { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Detailed market description / resolution criteria.</summary>
+    public string? Description { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Market image URL.</summary>
+    public string? ImageUrl { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>The question being predicted.</summary>
+    public string Question { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Category / tag (e.g. "Politics", "Crypto", "Sports").</summary>
+    public string Category { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Current total volume traded.</summary>
+    public decimal Volume { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Current liquidity.</summary>
+    public decimal Liquidity { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>The time when trading opened for this market.</summary>
+    public DateTime? StartDate { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When the market closes / resolves.</summary>
+    public DateTime? EndDate { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Whether the market has been resolved.</summary>
+    public bool IsResolved { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Resolution outcome (if resolved).</summary>
+    public string? ResolutionOutcome { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When this market was created on the platform.</summary>
+    public DateTime CreatedAt { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When this record was first saved to our database.</summary>
+    public DateTime DbCreatedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
+    /// <summary>Last time market data was refreshed.</summary>
+    public DateTime? LastUpdatedAt { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Last time market trades were polled for trader discovery.</summary>
+    public DateTime? LastTradesUpdatedAt { get; set; }
+
+    // Navigation
+    public ICollection<MarketOutcome> Outcomes { get; set; } = new List<MarketOutcome>();
+    public virtual MarketAnalytics? Analytics { get; set; }
+}

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/MarketOutcome.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Represents a single tradeable outcome within a market.
+/// For example, "Yes" and "No" on a binary market, or named outcomes on a multi-outcome market.
+/// The TokenId (clobTokenId on Polymarket) is the key link between trades and outcomes.
+/// </summary>
+public class MarketOutcome
+{
+    public int Id { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Foreign key to the parent market.</summary>
+    public int MarketId { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Human-readable outcome label (e.g. "Yes", "No", "Trump", "Biden").</summary>
+    public string Label { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Positional index of this outcome within the market (0-based).</summary>
+    public int OutcomeIndex { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Platform-specific token identifier for this outcome.
+    /// On Polymarket this is the clobTokenId — the key used in trade asset_id fields.
+    /// </summary>
+    public string TokenId { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Current price of this outcome (0.00 to 1.00).</summary>
+    public decimal CurrentPrice { get; set; }
+
+    // Navigation
+    public Market Market { get; set; } = null!;
+}

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/PlatformConfig.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+using Predictalytics.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+public class PlatformConfig
+{
+    public PlatformType Id { get; set; }
+    public string Name { get; set; } = "";
+    public string DisplayName { get; set; } = "";
+    public bool IsActive { get; set; } = true;
+    public string? BaseUrl { get; set; }
+    public string? SettingsJson { get; set; }
+    public DateTime CreatedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+    public DateTime UpdatedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+}

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/Trade.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+using Predictalytics.Domain.Enums;
+using System.ComponentModel.DataAnnotations.Schema;
+
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Represents a single trade executed by a trader on a prediction market.
+/// </summary>
+public class Trade
+{
+    public long Id { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Foreign key to the trader who made this trade.</summary>
+    public int TraderId { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Platform where the trade occurred.</summary>
+    public PlatformType Platform { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Platform-specific trade ID for deduplication.
+    /// Format: "{txHash}_{assetId}_{side}" (max ~143 chars for new trades).
+    /// Legacy trades may include wallet address as 2nd segment.
+    /// </summary>
+    public string PlatformTradeId { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Platform-specific market identifier string (conditionId on Polymarket, address on Limitless).
+    /// Kept as VARCHAR(66) for cross-referencing during import and reconciliation.
+    /// After full linking, prefer DbMarketId.
+    /// </summary>
+    public string MarketId { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Foreign key to the internal Markets table. Populated during import when the market is known.
+    /// Null for trades whose market has not yet been synced.
+    /// </summary>
+    public int? DbMarketId { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Platform-specific token/asset ID (clobTokenId on Polymarket). Links to MarketOutcome.TokenId.
+    /// Kept as VARCHAR(66) until MarketOutcomeId is resolved.
+    /// </summary>
+    public string AssetId { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Foreign key to the resolved MarketOutcome (nullable until resolved via market sync).</summary>
+    public int? MarketOutcomeId { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>The outcome the trader bet on (e.g. "Yes", "No").</summary>
+    public string Outcome { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Buy or Sell.</summary>
+    public TradeSide Side { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Price per share at execution (0.00 to 1.00 on Polymarket).</summary>
+    public decimal Price { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Number of shares/tokens traded.</summary>
+    public decimal Size { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Total notional value in USD.</summary>
+    public decimal Amount { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When the trade was executed on the platform.</summary>
+    public DateTime ExecutedAt { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Transaction hash (for blockchain-based platforms).</summary>
+    public string? TransactionHash { get; set; }
+
+    // ── Transient (not persisted) ──────────────────────────────────────────
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Wallet address of the trader, set by the provider during data ingestion.
+    /// NOT stored in the database — used transiently for trader discovery in MarketHistoryWorker.
+    /// </summary>
+    [NotMapped]
+    public string? TransientWallet { get; set; }
+
+    // ── Navigation ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    public Trader Trader { get; set; } = null!;
+    public MarketOutcome? MarketOutcome { get; set; }
+    public Market? DbMarket { get; set; }
+}

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/Trader.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+using Predictalytics.Domain.Enums;
+
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Represents a trader on a prediction market platform.
+/// Identity is composite: PlatformType + PlatformUserId (e.g. wallet address on Polymarket).
+/// </summary>
+public class Trader
+{
+    public int Id { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>The platform this trader belongs to.</summary>
+    public PlatformType Platform { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Platform-specific user identifier (e.g. Ethereum wallet address for Polymarket).</summary>
+    public string PlatformUserId { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Display name / alias (can be auto-discovered or manually set).</summary>
+    public string DisplayName { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Optional notes about the trader.</summary>
+    public string? Notes { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Whether this trader was auto-discovered or manually added.</summary>
+    public bool IsAutoDiscovered { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Current tier classification.</summary>
+    public TraderTier Tier { get; set; } = TraderTier.Unknown;
+
+    /// <summary>Classified strategy type from deep-dive analysis.</summary>
+    public StrategyType Strategy { get; set; } = StrategyType.Unknown;
+
+    /// <summary>Whether the trader shows bot-like behavior.</summary>
+    public bool IsSuspectedBot { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Manual priority override (null = use calculated score).</summary>
+    public int? ManualPriorityOverride { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When this trader was first tracked.</summary>
+    public DateTime CreatedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
+    /// <summary>When data was last polled for this trader.</summary>
+    public DateTime? LastPolledAt { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When the trader's trade history was last fully synced. Used for cooldown.</summary>
+    public DateTime? LastTradesUpdatedAt { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Whether the initial full historical trade import is complete.</summary>
+    public bool IsInitialImportComplete { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When the API first returned an error (e.g. 404 for deleted account).</summary>
+    public DateTime? LastApiErrorAt { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Total estimated PnL across all resolved markets.</summary>
+    public decimal TotalPnl { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Win rate as a percentage (0-100).</summary>
+    public decimal WinRate { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Total number of trades tracked.</summary>
+    public int TotalTrades { get; set; }
+
+    // Navigation properties
+    public ICollection<Trade> Trades { get; set; } = new List<Trade>();
+    public TraderScore? CurrentScore { get; set; }
+    public virtual TraderAnalytics? Analytics { get; set; }
+    public ICollection<WatchlistEntry> WatchlistEntries { get; set; } = new List<WatchlistEntry>();
+}

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/TraderScore.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Calculated priority and quality score for a trader.
+/// Updated periodically by the scoring engine.
+/// </summary>
+public class TraderScore
+{
+    public int Id { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Foreign key to trader.</summary>
+    public int TraderId { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Activity score: frequency, recency, and consistency of trading (0-100).</summary>
+    public decimal ActivityScore { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Quality score: win rate, ROI, risk management quality (0-100).</summary>
+    public decimal QualityScore { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Combined weighted score (0-100).</summary>
+    public decimal CombinedScore { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Volume score: size of positions relative to market (0-100).</summary>
+    public decimal VolumeScore { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Timing score: how well-timed entries and exits are (0-100).</summary>
+    public decimal TimingScore { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Overall rank among all tracked traders.</summary>
+    public int Rank { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>When this score was last calculated.</summary>
+    public DateTime CalculatedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
+    // Navigation
+    public Trader Trader { get; set; } = null!;
+}

src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/WatchlistEntry.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+namespace Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// A trader that has been added to the user's watchlist for prioritized tracking.
+/// </summary>
+public class WatchlistEntry
+{
+    public int Id { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Foreign key to the watched trader.</summary>
+    public int TraderId { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>User-defined label for this watchlist entry.</summary>
+    public string Label { get; set; } = string.Empty;
+
+    /// <summary>Optional notes about why this trader is watched.</summary>
+    public string? Notes { get; set; }
+
+    /// <summary>Whether to receive alerts for this trader's activity.</summary>
+    public bool AlertsEnabled { get; set; } = true;
+
+    /// <summary>When this entry was added to the watchlist.</summary>
+    public DateTime AddedAt { get; set; } = DateTime.UtcNow;
+
+    // Navigation
+    public Trader Trader { get; set; } = null!;
+}