Fix category mapping and TotalTrades drift, plan traits/tiering (Teil D)

- MarketCategoryMapper: classify from question text (the Gamma /markets
  endpoint delivers neither category nor event tags, so on-demand markets
  had no signal at all), match short tokens on word boundaries ("eth" no
  longer hits inside "whether", "pop" not inside "popular"), widen the
  keyword lists across all categories.
- UpdateMarketFields: never overwrite a tag-derived category with an
  uninformative "Other" from the on-demand path.
- PositionPnLEngine: sync Trader.TotalTrades to the actual replayed row
  count — the worker-side increment counters drift (INSERT IGNORE,
  deletions, historic imports) and produced Trades30d > TotalTrades.
- Tests: 14 new (mapper classification + word-boundary regression,
  TotalTrades sync + Trades30d invariant, category update guard via
  SQLite) — suite now 32 green + 1 skip.
- FIXPLAN Teil D for the larger rebuilds (AggregatedCount column,
  TraderTraits heuristics, IngestMode tiering for ultra-HF traders).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

FIXPLAN-2026-07-09.md

@@ -318,3 +318,93 @@ zukünftiges Pruning ist damit verlustfrei im Sinne der PnL-Summen.
 7. Watchlist: Toggle auf der Detailseite wechselt sichtbar den Zustand; die neue Watchlist-Seite listet die
    beobachteten Trader; Remove funktioniert. *(A10)*
 8. „Run Deep Analysis" (KI) füllt die AI Strategy Analysis auf der Detailseite tatsächlich. *(A10)*
+
+---
+
+## Teil D — Ausbaustufe: Merkmals-Tags & HF-Trader-Tiering (ergänzt 2026-07-11)
+
+> **Bereits direkt erledigt (nicht Teil dieses Auftrags):** `TotalTrades` wird jetzt von der Engine aus dem
+> echten Row-Count gesetzt; der Kategorie-Mapper klassifiziert zusätzlich über den Frage-Text und matcht kurze
+> Tokens nur an Wortgrenzen; `UpdateMarketFields` überschreibt gute Kategorien nicht mehr mit "Other".
+> Teststand: **32 grün + 1 Skip** — das ist die neue Basis, Assertions unverändert lassen.
+
+### D1. `AggregatedCount`-Spalte (Grundlage für D2/D3)
+
+- Migration: `Trades.AggregatedCount INT NULL` (NULL = einzelner Roh-Trade).
+- Kompaktierung im `TradeRetentionWorker`: schreibt `AggregatedCount = Anzahl der ersetzten Trades`
+  (heute geht die Original-Anzahl verloren!) und summiert beim erneuten Kompaktieren
+  bestehende Aggregate (`Sum(t.AggregatedCount ?? 1)`).
+- Engine: `trader.TotalTrades = trades.Sum(t => t.AggregatedCount ?? 1)` (ersetzt `trades.Count`),
+  `analytics.Trades30d` analog.
+- **Test:** Kompaktierung von 5 Trades → 1 Aggregat mit `AggregatedCount = 5`; `TotalTrades` bleibt nach
+  Recalc 5, nicht 1.
+
+### D2. TraderTraits — heuristische Strategie-Merkmale (ohne KI)
+
+- Neue Tabelle `TraderTraits`: Id, TraderId (FK, Cascade), Trait (string ≤ 64), Value (decimal, Messwert),
+  ComputedAt. Unique-Index (TraderId, Trait). Pro Analyse-Lauf upserten, nicht mehr zutreffende Traits löschen.
+- Berechnung als **pure Funktion** `TraderTraitCalculator.Compute(trader, trades, positions)` →
+  Liste (Trait, Value); Aufruf im `TraderAnalyticsWorker` nach Engine + Estimator aus den **bereits geladenen**
+  Daten — keine zusätzlichen API-Calls.
+- Traits v1 (Trait vergeben, wenn Bedingung erfüllt; Value = Messgröße):
+
+| Trait | Regel |
+|---|---|
+| `sub_second_cadence` | Median-Intervall < 2 s bei ≥ 50 Trades (Value = Median in s) |
+| `always_on_24_7` | größte Inaktivitätslücke der letzten 7 Tage < 4 h bei ≥ 200 Trades/7d |
+| `uniform_sizes` | Variationskoeffizient der Size (letzte 200 Trades) < 0,1 |
+| `round_amounts` | > 60 % der Amounts ∈ {1,5,10,20,25,50,100,250,500,1000} ± 1 % |
+| `uses_split_merge` | Anteil Split+Merge > 10 % |
+| `both_sides_same_market` | Yes- UND No-Trades in > 20 % der Märkte |
+| `resolution_farming` | > 30 % der Buys mit Price ≥ 0,93 UND < 48 h vor `ClosedAt` (min. 10 Buys) |
+| `longshot_buyer` | > 30 % der Buys mit Price ≤ 0,10 |
+| `scalper` | mediane Haltedauer < 1 h |
+| `holds_to_resolution` | > 70 % der aufgelösten Positionen ohne vorherigen Sell |
+| `fresh_wallet` | erster Trade < 30 Tage (Value = Alter in Tagen) |
+| `stable_stake_fraction` | CV von Amount/EstimatedBankroll < 0,5 (nur bei Bankroll > 0) |
+
+- Schwellwerte als Konstanten im Calculator (v1 hart kodiert ist ok).
+- API/UI: `TraderDto`/`TraderDetailDto` um `Traits` (string-Liste) erweitern; Detailseite zeigt Chips
+  unter dem Strategy-Feld; Traders-Liste bekommt einen Trait-Filter.
+- KI-Integration: `AiStrategyAnalysisService`-Prompt bekommt die Merkmalsliste; Trade-Beispiele von 50 auf
+  15 repräsentative reduzieren (5 größte, 5 jüngste, 5 zufällige) — die KI verifiziert Hypothesen statt zu raten.
+- **Tests:** pure-Function-Tests je Trait, mindestens Positiv- UND Negativfall für `resolution_farming`,
+  `sub_second_cadence`, `uniform_sizes`, `both_sides_same_market`.
+
+### D3. Trader-Tiering (`IngestMode`) — Umgang mit Ultra-HF-Tradern (RN1, Swisstony)
+
+**Hintergrund:** Ultra-HF-Trader werden heute schon NICHT vollständig erfasst (PollingWorker: 100 Trades/60 s
+gegen 300+/min) — das Trade-Replay-PnL ist für diese Klasse bereits falsch und frisst nur Speicher.
+
+- Enum `IngestMode { Full = 0, Aggregated = 1, SnapshotOnly = 2 }` + Spalte auf `Trader` (Default Full), Migration.
+- **Klassifizierung** im `TradeHistoryWorker` nach jedem Fetch: Zeitspanne der letzten 500 Trades →
+  Trades/Tag-Schätzung. > 5.000/Tag → SnapshotOnly; > 100/Tag → Aggregated. Hysterese: Rückstufung Richtung
+  Full erst nach 7 Tagen unter der halben Schwelle (kein Flattern).
+- **SnapshotOnly (Tier C):**
+  - Polling/History-Worker überspringen den Trade-Import komplett.
+  - Stündlich: `GetTraderPositionsAsync` (der ungenutzte `/positions`-Endpoint!) → `TraderPositions` upserten
+    (size→SharesHeld, avgPrice→AvgCost, cashPnl→RealizedPnl); `OverallPnL` aus Positions +
+    `GetLeaderboardAsync`-PnL für die Zeitfenster; `TraderDailySnapshot` weiter schreiben (Equity-Kurve bleibt).
+  - Wöchentliche „Biopsie": einmal 500 Trades via /activity ziehen, NUR durch den `TraderTraitCalculator`
+    schicken, NICHT persistieren.
+  - Engine überspringt Trade-Replay für SnapshotOnly; Estimator/Enrichment überspringen; CopytradingScore = 0
+    mit Trait `not_copyable_hf`.
+- **Aggregated (Tier B):** Aggregation beim Import statt nachträglicher Kompaktierung: Bucket
+  (TraderId, MarketOutcomeId, Side, Stunde) mit VWAP-Preis, Summen-Size/-Amount, `AggregatedCount`; gespeichert
+  als normale Trade-Zeile mit `PlatformTradeId = "AGG_{traderId}_{outcomeId}_{side}_{yyyyMMddHH}"`, laufende
+  Stunde per Upsert aktualisieren. Average-Cost-Engine bleibt damit verlustfrei.
+- Danach: `RetentionDays` für Full-Trader auf 180 erhöhen (Config) — die Bots stellen nicht mehr die Masse,
+  und längerer Track-Record nützt genau den kopierbaren Tradern.
+- **Tests:** Klassifizierungs-Schwellen + Hysterese als pure Funktion; PollingWorker importiert für
+  SnapshotOnly-Trader nichts; Aggregations-Upsert ist idempotent (2× dieselbe Stunde → 1 Zeile, korrekte Summen
+  und `AggregatedCount`).
+
+### D4. Abnahme Teil D
+
+1. `dotnet test`: alle bestehenden **32 + 1 Skip** bleiben grün (Assertions unverändert) + die neuen D-Tests.
+2. RN1/Swisstony stehen nach der Einstufung auf SnapshotOnly: PnL gefüllt (aus /positions/Leaderboard),
+   Traits gesetzt, **keine neuen Trade-Zeilen** mehr in der DB.
+3. Detailseite zeigt Trait-Chips; Traders-Liste filterbar nach Trait.
+4. Tägliches DB-Wachstum sichtbar reduziert (DB-Size-Anzeige im WinForms-Statusbar beobachten).
+
+Reihenfolge: **D1 → D2 → D3** (bei D3 zuerst Tier C, dann Tier B).

src/Predictalytics.Application.Tests/Services/MarketCategoryMapperTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+using Predictalytics.Domain.Enums;
+using Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Helpers;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace Predictalytics.Application.Tests.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Tests for the keyword-based market classification (added 2026-07-11).
+/// The Gamma /markets endpoint carries neither a category field nor event tags,
+/// so for on-demand fetched markets the QUESTION TEXT is often the only signal —
+/// the mapper must classify from it. Short tokens must match on word boundaries
+/// ("eth" must not hit inside "whether", "pop" not inside "popular").
+/// </summary>
+public class MarketCategoryMapperTests
+{
+    [Theory]
+    // Question-text-only classification (the on-demand path has no tags):
+    [InlineData("", "", "Will the Lakers win the NBA Finals?", MarketCategory.Sports)]
+    [InlineData("", "", "Ethereum above $1,850 on July 10?", MarketCategory.Crypto)]
+    [InlineData("", "", "Will Trump win the 2028 presidential election?", MarketCategory.Politics)]
+    [InlineData("", "", "Fed rate cut in September?", MarketCategory.Economy)]
+    [InlineData("", "", "Will SpaceX launch Starship this quarter?", MarketCategory.Science)]
+    [InlineData("", "", "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before August?", MarketCategory.GlobalNews)]
+    [InlineData("", "", "New Rihanna album before GTA VI?", MarketCategory.PopCulture)]
+    // Tag-based classification still works:
+    [InlineData("", "Sports, NBA", "", MarketCategory.Sports)]
+    [InlineData("", "Crypto", "", MarketCategory.Crypto)]
+    // No signal at all → Other:
+    [InlineData("", "", "Something entirely unclassifiable happens?", MarketCategory.Other)]
+    public void Map_ClassifiesFromAvailableSignals(string rawCategory, string tags, string question, MarketCategory expected)
+    {
+        var (category, _) = MarketCategoryMapper.Map(rawCategory, tags, question);
+        Assert.Equal(expected, category);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Map_ShortTokens_RequireWordBoundaries()
+    {
+        // "whether" contains the substring "eth" — must NOT classify as Crypto.
+        var (category, _) = MarketCategoryMapper.Map("", "", "Whether the government acts by Friday?");
+        Assert.NotEqual(MarketCategory.Crypto, category);
+
+        // "popular vote" contains the substring "pop" — must be Politics ("vote"),
+        // not PopCulture.
+        var (category2, _) = MarketCategoryMapper.Map("", "", "Popular vote winner in Michigan?");
+        Assert.Equal(MarketCategory.Politics, category2);
+    }
+
+    [Fact]
+    public void Map_Subcategory_PrefersFirstTagOverFallback()
+    {
+        var (_, subcategory) = MarketCategoryMapper.Map("", "NBA, Basketball", "Lakers to win?");
+        Assert.Equal("NBA", subcategory);
+    }
+}

src/Predictalytics.Application.Tests/Services/MarketRepositoryTests.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+using System;
+using System.Threading.Tasks;
+using Microsoft.Data.Sqlite;
+using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore;
+using Predictalytics.Domain.Entities;
+using Predictalytics.Domain.Enums;
+using Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Data;
+using Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Data.Repositories;
+using Xunit;
+
+namespace Predictalytics.Application.Tests.Services;
+
+/// <summary>
+/// Tests for the market upsert paths (added 2026-07-11).
+/// Uses SQLite in-memory (same pattern as TradeRetentionWorkerTests).
+/// </summary>
+public class MarketRepositoryTests
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// The on-demand /markets fetch carries no event tags and classifies markets
+    /// as "Other". Such an uninformative update must NOT overwrite a category that
+    /// was previously derived from the tag-bearing /events sync — while a
+    /// legitimate reclassification (Other → Sports) must still go through.
+    /// </summary>
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task AddOrUpdateAsync_DoesNotOverwriteGoodCategoryWithOther()
+    {
+        using var connection = new SqliteConnection("DataSource=:memory:");
+        connection.Open();
+        var options = new DbContextOptionsBuilder<AppDbContext>()
+            .UseSqlite(connection)
+            .Options;
+
+        using (var setup = new AppDbContext(options))
+        {
+            setup.Database.EnsureCreated();
+            var ev = new Event { Id = 1, Platform = PlatformType.Polymarket, Slug = "e", Title = "E" };
+            setup.Set<Event>().Add(ev);
+            setup.Markets.Add(new Market
+            {
+                Id = 10, EventId = 1, Platform = PlatformType.Polymarket,
+                ConditionId = "0xabc", PlatformMarketId = 1L, Question = "Lakers to win?",
+                Category = MarketCategory.Sports, Subcategory = "NBA"
+            });
+            setup.SaveChanges();
+        }
+
+        // Act 1: uninformative on-demand update (no tags → Other) must not downgrade.
+        using (var ctx = new AppDbContext(options))
+        {
+            var repo = new MarketRepository(ctx);
+            await repo.AddOrUpdateAsync(new Market
+            {
+                Platform = PlatformType.Polymarket, ConditionId = "0xabc",
+                PlatformMarketId = 1L, Question = "Lakers to win?",
+                Category = MarketCategory.Other, Subcategory = "Other"
+            });
+        }
+
+        using (var assertCtx = new AppDbContext(options))
+        {
+            var market = await assertCtx.Markets.SingleAsync(m => m.ConditionId == "0xabc");
+            Assert.Equal(MarketCategory.Sports, market.Category);
+            Assert.Equal("NBA", market.Subcategory);
+        }
+
+        // Act 2: a real classification must still overwrite an existing "Other".
+        using (var ctx = new AppDbContext(options))
+        {
+            var repo = new MarketRepository(ctx);
+            await repo.AddOrUpdateAsync(new Market
+            {
+                Platform = PlatformType.Polymarket, ConditionId = "0xdef",
+                PlatformMarketId = 2L, Question = "Unknown thing?",
+                Category = MarketCategory.Other, Subcategory = "Other",
+                Event = new Event { Platform = PlatformType.Polymarket, PlatformEventId = 2, Slug = "e2", Title = "E2" }
+            });
+            await repo.AddOrUpdateAsync(new Market
+            {
+                Platform = PlatformType.Polymarket, ConditionId = "0xdef",
+                PlatformMarketId = 2L, Question = "Unknown thing?",
+                Category = MarketCategory.Politics, Subcategory = "Elections"
+            });
+        }
+
+        using (var assertCtx = new AppDbContext(options))
+        {
+            var market = await assertCtx.Markets.SingleAsync(m => m.ConditionId == "0xdef");
+            Assert.Equal(MarketCategory.Politics, market.Category);
+            Assert.Equal("Elections", market.Subcategory);
+        }
+    }
+}

src/Predictalytics.Application.Tests/Services/PositionPnLEngineTests.cs

@@ -778,4 +778,59 @@ public class PositionPnLEngineTests
             Assert.Equal(30m, analytics.OverallPnL);
         }
     }
+
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Added 2026-07-11: Trader.TotalTrades was a drifting increment counter
+    /// (INSERT IGNORE over-counts, historic imports never counted, deletions never
+    /// subtracted), which produced impossible states like Trades30d > TotalTrades.
+    /// The engine recalculation is the single source of truth: it must sync
+    /// TotalTrades to the actual number of trade rows it just replayed.
+    /// </summary>
+    [Fact]
+    public async Task RecalculateTraderPositionsAsync_SyncsTotalTradesWithActualTradeCount()
+    {
+        // Arrange: counter is wildly wrong (both directions occur in production).
+        var dbName = Guid.NewGuid().ToString();
+        using (var db = CreateDbContext(dbName))
+        {
+            var trader = new Trader { Id = 1, PlatformUserId = "0x1", DisplayName = "Trader 1", TotalTrades = 999 };
+            var market = new Market { Id = 10, PlatformMarketId = 1L, Question = "Q?" };
+            market.Outcomes.Add(new MarketOutcome { Id = 100, MarketId = 10, Label = "Yes", TokenId = "t100", CurrentPrice = 0.50m });
+            db.Traders.Add(trader);
+            db.Markets.Add(market);
+
+            db.Trades.Add(new Trade
+            {
+                Id = 10, TraderId = 1, DbMarketId = 10, MarketOutcomeId = 100,
+                Side = TradeSide.Buy, Price = 0.40m, Size = 100m, Amount = 40m,
+                ExecutedAt = DateTime.UtcNow.AddDays(-2)
+            });
+            db.Trades.Add(new Trade
+            {
+                Id = 11, TraderId = 1, DbMarketId = 10, MarketOutcomeId = 100,
+                Side = TradeSide.Sell, Price = 0.50m, Size = 50m, Amount = 25m,
+                ExecutedAt = DateTime.UtcNow.AddDays(-1)
+            });
+            await db.SaveChangesAsync();
+        }
+
+        // Act
+        using (var db = CreateDbContext(dbName))
+        {
+            var pnlEngine = new PositionPnLEngine(db, NullLogger<PositionPnLEngine>.Instance);
+            await pnlEngine.RecalculateTraderPositionsAsync(1);
+        }
+
+        // Assert: counter equals the real row count, and the windowed count can
+        // never exceed it again.
+        using (var db = CreateDbContext(dbName))
+        {
+            var trader = await db.Traders.SingleAsync(t => t.Id == 1);
+            Assert.Equal(2, trader.TotalTrades);
+
+            var analytics = await db.TraderAnalytics.SingleAsync(a => a.TraderId == 1);
+            Assert.True(analytics.Trades30d <= trader.TotalTrades,
+                $"Trades30d ({analytics.Trades30d}) must never exceed TotalTrades ({trader.TotalTrades})");
+        }
+    }
 }

src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Data/Repositories/MarketRepository.cs

@@ -192,8 +192,15 @@ public class MarketRepository : IMarketRepository
         existing.PlatformMarketId = updated.PlatformMarketId;
         existing.QuestionId = updated.QuestionId;
         existing.Description = updated.Description;
+
+        // The /markets endpoint (on-demand path) carries no event tags, so its
+        // classification is often just "Other". Never let an uninformative update
+        // overwrite a category previously derived from the tag-bearing /events sync.
+        if (updated.Category != MarketCategory.Other || existing.Category == MarketCategory.Other)
+        {
             existing.Category = updated.Category;
             existing.Subcategory = updated.Subcategory;
+        }
         existing.Volume = updated.Volume;
         existing.Volume24h = updated.Volume24h;
         existing.Liquidity = updated.Liquidity;

src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Helpers/MarketCategoryMapper.cs

@@ -1,33 +1,77 @@
+using System.Text.RegularExpressions;
 using Predictalytics.Domain.Enums;
 
 namespace Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Helpers;
 
 public static class MarketCategoryMapper
 {
-    public static (MarketCategory Category, string Subcategory) Map(string rawCategory, string tags)
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Classification rules, first match wins. Two matching modes per category:
+    /// - Substrings: long, unambiguous fragments matched anywhere ("politic", "bitcoin").
+    /// - Words: short/ambiguous tokens matched only on word boundaries, so "eth"
+    ///   cannot hit inside "whether" and "pop" cannot hit inside "popular".
+    /// </summary>
+    private static readonly (MarketCategory Category, string[] Substrings, string[] Words)[] Rules =
     {
-        var searchString = $"{rawCategory} {tags}".ToLowerInvariant();
+        (MarketCategory.Politics,
+            new[] { "politic", "election", "president", "senat", "congress", "parliament", "impeach",
+                    "referendum", "governor", "minister", "chancellor", "nominee", "supreme court",
+                    "white house", "ballot", "veto", "coalition", "legislation", "mayor" },
+            new[] { "trump", "biden", "harris", "vance", "scotus", "gop", "dnc", "rnc", "poll", "polls", "vote", "votes" }),
 
-        if (searchString.Contains("politic") || searchString.Contains("election") || searchString.Contains("trump") || searchString.Contains("biden"))
+        (MarketCategory.Crypto,
-            return (MarketCategory.Politics, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, "Elections"));
+            new[] { "crypto", "bitcoin", "ethereum", "solana", "dogecoin", "blockchain", "stablecoin",
+                    "binance", "coinbase", "airdrop", "halving", "memecoin", "altcoin", "defi", "satoshi" },
+            new[] { "btc", "eth", "sol", "xrp", "doge", "nft", "bnb", "ada", "usdt", "usdc" }),
 
-        if (searchString.Contains("crypto") || searchString.Contains("bitcoin") || searchString.Contains("eth") || searchString.Contains("solana"))
+        (MarketCategory.Sports,
-            return (MarketCategory.Crypto, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, "Crypto"));
+            new[] { "sport", "soccer", "tennis", "basketball", "baseball", "football", "hockey", "olympic",
+                    "champions league", "premier league", "bundesliga", "la liga", "serie a", "world cup",
+                    "super bowl", "grand slam", "wimbledon", "playoff", "esport", "cricket", "rugby",
+                    "golf", "boxing", "marathon", "formula 1", "grand prix", "stanley cup", "world series",
+                    "roland garros", "us open" },
+            new[] { "nfl", "nba", "mlb", "nhl", "ufc", "mma", "f1", "fifa", "uefa", "atp", "wta", "pga", "ncaa", "epl" }),
 
-        if (searchString.Contains("sport") || searchString.Contains("nfl") || searchString.Contains("nba") || searchString.Contains("soccer") || searchString.Contains("tennis"))
+        (MarketCategory.PopCulture,
-            return (MarketCategory.Sports, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, "Sports"));
+            new[] { "culture", "movie", "oscars", "music", "album", "billboard", "box office", "netflix",
+                    "spotify", "grammy", "emmy", "celebrit", "taylor swift", "mrbeast", "youtube", "tiktok",
+                    "video game", "rotten tomatoes", "eurovision" },
+            new[] { "pop", "gta", "oscar" }),
 
-        if (searchString.Contains("pop") || searchString.Contains("culture") || searchString.Contains("movie") || searchString.Contains("oscars") || searchString.Contains("music"))
+        (MarketCategory.Science,
-            return (MarketCategory.PopCulture, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, "Pop Culture"));
+            new[] { "science", "spacex", "nasa", "asteroid", "hurricane", "earthquake", "climate", "weather",
+                    "temperature", "vaccine", "pandemic", "artificial intelligence", "openai", "chatgpt",
+                    "quantum", "starship", "nobel", "space" },
+            new[] { "ai", "agi", "gpt", "llm" }),
 
-        if (searchString.Contains("science") || searchString.Contains("space") || searchString.Contains("weather") || searchString.Contains("climate"))
+        (MarketCategory.GlobalNews,
-            return (MarketCategory.Science, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, "Science"));
+            new[] { "global", "world", "news", "ceasefire", "ukraine", "russia", "israel", "gaza", "iran",
+                    "taiwan", "nato", "sanction", "treaty", "invasion", "north korea", "hostage",
+                    "military", "missile", "nuclear" },
+            new[] { "war", "u.n." }),
 
-        if (searchString.Contains("news") || searchString.Contains("global") || searchString.Contains("world"))
+        (MarketCategory.Economy,
-            return (MarketCategory.GlobalNews, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, "Global News"));
+            new[] { "econom", "finance", "business", "inflation", "recession", "interest rate", "rate cut",
+                    "rate hike", "unemployment", "tariff", "treasury", "earnings", "market cap",
+                    "stock price", "bankrupt", "acquisition", "merger" },
+            new[] { "fed", "fomc", "cpi", "gdp", "nasdaq", "dow", "ipo" }),
+    };
 
-        if (searchString.Contains("economy") || searchString.Contains("finance") || searchString.Contains("business") || searchString.Contains("fed"))
+    /// <summary>
-            return (MarketCategory.Economy, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, "Economy"));
+    /// Classifies a market. The question text is a first-class signal: the Gamma
+    /// /markets endpoint delivers neither a category field nor event tags, so for
+    /// on-demand fetched markets the question is often the ONLY signal available.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static (MarketCategory Category, string Subcategory) Map(string rawCategory, string tags, string question = "")
+    {
+        var searchString = $"{rawCategory} {tags} {question}".ToLowerInvariant();
+        var tokens = new HashSet<string>(Regex.Split(searchString, "[^a-z0-9.]+"));
+
+        foreach (var rule in Rules)
+        {
+            if (rule.Words.Any(tokens.Contains) || rule.Substrings.Any(searchString.Contains))
+                return (rule.Category, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, rule.Category.ToString()));
+        }
 
         return (MarketCategory.Other, GetSubcategory(rawCategory, tags, "Other"));
     }
@@ -35,7 +79,7 @@ public static class MarketCategoryMapper
     private static string GetSubcategory(string rawCategory, string tags, string fallback)
     {
         if (!string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(rawCategory) && !rawCategory.Equals("OVERALL", StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase))
-            return rawCategory;
+            return rawCategory.Trim();
 
         var firstTag = tags.Split(',', StringSplitOptions.RemoveEmptyEntries).FirstOrDefault()?.Trim();
         if (!string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(firstTag))

src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Providers/Polymarket/PolymarketProvider.cs

@@ -318,7 +318,7 @@ public class PolymarketProvider : IPlatformProvider
     {
         long.TryParse(raw.Id, out var marketNumericId);
 
-        var catMap = Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Helpers.MarketCategoryMapper.Map(raw.Category ?? "", parentTags);
+        var catMap = Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Helpers.MarketCategoryMapper.Map(raw.Category ?? "", parentTags, raw.Question ?? "");
 
         var market = new Market
         {

src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Services/PositionPnLEngine.cs

@@ -367,6 +367,11 @@ public class PositionPnLEngine : IPositionPnLEngine
         // Sync back to Trader record for quick sorting / UI display
         trader.TotalPnl = overallPnl;
         trader.WinRate = winRateOverall;
+        // Row count is the single source of truth for TotalTrades — the worker-side
+        // increment counters drift (INSERT IGNORE, deletions, historic imports) and
+        // produced impossible states like Trades30d > TotalTrades. Compacted rows
+        // count as 1 until an AggregatedCount column exists (FIXPLAN Teil D).
+        trader.TotalTrades = trades.Count;
         if (trades.Count > 0 || trader.LastTradesUpdatedAt != null)
         {
             trader.LastAnalyzedAt = DateTime.UtcNow;

src/Predictalytics.WinFormsHost/MainForm.Designer.cs

@@ -23,162 +23,7 @@ partial class MainForm
         statusStrip1 = new StatusStrip();
         label_apiRatelimit = new ToolStripStatusLabel();
         label_buildVersion = new ToolStripStatusLabel();
-        tabControl1 = new TabControl();
-        tabPage_terminal = new TabPage();
-        rtb_terminal = new RichTextBox();
-        tabPage2 = new TabPage();
-        pg_settings = new PropertyGrid();
-        menuStrip1 = new MenuStrip();
-        filesToolStripMenuItem = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        editToolStripMenuItem = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        btn_logfolder = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        btn_openbrowser = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        developmentToolStripMenuItem = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        btn_dbReset = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        btn_syncmarkets = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        btn_dbUpdate = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        btn_recalcAll = new ToolStripMenuItem();
-        toolStrip1.SuspendLayout();
-        statusStrip1.SuspendLayout();
-        tabControl1.SuspendLayout();
-        tabPage_terminal.SuspendLayout();
-        tabPage2.SuspendLayout();
-        menuStrip1.SuspendLayout();
-        SuspendLayout();
-        // 
-        // toolStrip1
-        // 
-        toolStrip1.ImageScalingSize = new Size(24, 24);
-        toolStrip1.Items.AddRange(new ToolStripItem[] { btn_serverstart, btn_localWebserver });
-        toolStrip1.Location = new Point(0, 33);
-        toolStrip1.Name = "toolStrip1";
-        toolStrip1.Size = new Size(1864, 34);
-        toolStrip1.TabIndex = 0;
-        // 
-        // btn_serverstart
-        // 
-        btn_serverstart.ImageTransparentColor = Color.Magenta;
-        btn_serverstart.Name = "btn_serverstart";
-        btn_serverstart.Size = new Size(127, 29);
-        btn_serverstart.Text = "▶ Start Server";
-        // 
-        // btn_localWebserver
-        // 
-        btn_localWebserver.ImageTransparentColor = Color.Magenta;
-        btn_localWebserver.Name = "btn_localWebserver";
-        btn_localWebserver.Size = new Size(161, 29);
-        btn_localWebserver.Text = "▶ Start Webserver";
-        // 
-        // statusStrip1
-        // 
-        statusStrip1.ImageScalingSize = new Size(24, 24);
-        statusStrip1.Items.AddRange(new ToolStripItem[] { label_apiRatelimit, label_buildVersion });
-        statusStrip1.Location = new Point(0, 1000);
-        statusStrip1.Name = "statusStrip1";
-        statusStrip1.Size = new Size(1864, 32);
-        statusStrip1.TabIndex = 1;
-        // 
-        // label_apiRatelimit
-        // 
-        label_apiRatelimit.Name = "label_apiRatelimit";
-        label_apiRatelimit.Size = new Size(1782, 25);
-        label_apiRatelimit.Spring = true;
-        label_apiRatelimit.Text = "API: OK";
-        label_apiRatelimit.TextAlign = ContentAlignment.MiddleLeft;
-        // 
-        // label_buildVersion
-        // 
-        label_buildVersion.Name = "label_buildVersion";
-        label_buildVersion.Size = new Size(67, 25);
-        label_buildVersion.Text = "Build: -";
-        label_buildVersion.TextAlign = ContentAlignment.MiddleRight;
-        // 
-        // tabControl1
-        // 
-        tabControl1.Anchor = AnchorStyles.Top | AnchorStyles.Bottom | AnchorStyles.Left | AnchorStyles.Right;
-        tabControl1.Controls.Add(tabPage_terminal);
-        tabControl1.Controls.Add(tabPage2);
-        tabControl1.Location = new Point(0, 61);
-        tabControl1.Name = "tabControl1";
-        tabControl1.SelectedIndex = 0;
-        tabControl1.Size = new Size(1864, 946);
-        tabControl1.TabIndex = 2;
-        // 
-        // tabPage_terminal
-        // 
-        tabPage_terminal.Controls.Add(rtb_terminal);
-        tabPage_terminal.Location = new Point(4, 34);
-        tabPage_terminal.Name = "tabPage_terminal";
-        tabPage_terminal.Padding = new Padding(3);
-        tabPage_terminal.Size = new Size(1856, 908);
-        tabPage_terminal.TabIndex = 0;
-        tabPage_terminal.Text = "Terminal";
-        tabPage_terminal.UseVisualStyleBackColor = true;
-        // 
-        // rtb_terminal
-        // 
-        rtb_terminal.Anchor = AnchorStyles.Top | AnchorStyles.Bottom | AnchorStyles.Left | AnchorStyles.Right;
-        rtb_terminal.Location = new Point(3, 6);
-        rtb_terminal.Name = "rtb_terminal";
-        rtb_terminal.Size = new Size(1847, 896);
-        rtb_terminal.TabIndex = 0;
-        rtb_terminal.Text = "";
-        // 
-        // tabPage2
-        // 
-        tabPage2.Controls.Add(pg_settings);
-        tabPage2.Location = new Point(4, 34);
-        tabPage2.Name = "tabPage2";
-        tabPage2.Padding = new Padding(3);
-        tabPage2.Size = new Size(1856, 908);
-        tabPage2.TabIndex = 1;
-        tabPage2.Text = "Settings";
-        tabPage2.UseVisualStyleBackColor = true;
-        // 
-        // pg_settings
-        // 
-        pg_settings.Location = new Point(3, 6);
-        pg_settings.Name = "pg_settings";
-        pg_settings.Size = new Size(1850, 896);
-        pg_settings.TabIndex = 0;
-        // 
-        // menuStrip1
-        // 
-        menuStrip1.ImageScalingSize = new Size(24, 24);
-        menuStrip1.Items.AddRange(new ToolStripItem[] { filesToolStripMenuItem, editToolStripMenuItem, developmentToolStripMenuItem });
-        menuStrip1.Location = new Point(0, 0);
-        menuStrip1.Name = "menuStrip1";
-        menuStrip1.Size = new Size(1864, 33);
-        menuStrip1.TabIndex = 3;
-        // 
-        // filesToolStripMenuItem
-        // 
-        filesToolStripMenuItem.Name = "filesToolStripMenuItem";
-        filesToolStripMenuItem.Size = new Size(62, 29);
-        filesToolStripMenuItem.Text = "Files";
-        // 
-        // editToolStripMenuItem
-        // 
-        editToolStripMenuItem.DropDownItems.AddRange(new ToolStripItem[] { btn_logfolder, btn_openbrowser });
-        editToolStripMenuItem.Name = "editToolStripMenuItem";
-        editToolStripMenuItem.Size = new Size(58, 29);
-        editToolStripMenuItem.Text = "Edit";
-        // 
-        // btn_logfolder
-        // 
-        btn_logfolder.Name = "btn_logfolder";
-        btn_logfolder.Size = new Size(261, 34);
-        btn_logfolder.Text = "Show Logfolder";
-        btn_logfolder.Click += btn_logfolder_Click;
-        // 
-        // btn_openbrowser
-        toolStrip1 = new ToolStrip();
-        btn_serverstart = new ToolStripButton();
-        btn_localWebserver = new ToolStripButton();
-        statusStrip1 = new StatusStrip();
-        label_apiRatelimit = new ToolStripStatusLabel();
         label_dbSize = new ToolStripStatusLabel();
-        label_buildVersion = new ToolStripStatusLabel();
         tabControl1 = new TabControl();
         tabPage_terminal = new TabPage();
         rtb_terminal = new RichTextBox();
@@ -242,13 +87,6 @@ partial class MainForm
         label_apiRatelimit.Text = "API: OK";
         label_apiRatelimit.TextAlign = ContentAlignment.MiddleLeft;
         // 
-        // label_dbSize
-        // 
-        label_dbSize.Name = "label_dbSize";
-        label_dbSize.Size = new Size(150, 25);
-        label_dbSize.Text = "DB Size: -";
-        label_dbSize.TextAlign = ContentAlignment.MiddleRight;
-        // 
         // label_buildVersion
         // 
         label_buildVersion.Name = "label_buildVersion";
@@ -256,6 +94,13 @@ partial class MainForm
         label_buildVersion.Text = "Build: -";
         label_buildVersion.TextAlign = ContentAlignment.MiddleRight;
         // 
+        // label_dbSize
+        // 
+        label_dbSize.Name = "label_dbSize";
+        label_dbSize.Size = new Size(150, 25);
+        label_dbSize.Text = "DB Size: -";
+        label_dbSize.TextAlign = ContentAlignment.MiddleRight;
+        // 
         // tabControl1
         // 
         tabControl1.Anchor = AnchorStyles.Top | AnchorStyles.Bottom | AnchorStyles.Left | AnchorStyles.Right;
@@ -351,27 +196,27 @@ partial class MainForm
         // btn_dbReset
         // 
         btn_dbReset.Name = "btn_dbReset";
-        btn_dbReset.Size = new Size(270, 34);
+        btn_dbReset.Size = new Size(286, 34);
         btn_dbReset.Text = "reset TradesDB";
         // 
         // btn_syncmarkets
         // 
         btn_syncmarkets.Name = "btn_syncmarkets";
-        btn_syncmarkets.Size = new Size(270, 34);
+        btn_syncmarkets.Size = new Size(286, 34);
         btn_syncmarkets.Text = "Sync Markets";
         btn_syncmarkets.Click += syncMarketsaToolStripMenuItem_Click;
         // 
         // btn_dbUpdate
         // 
         btn_dbUpdate.Name = "btn_dbUpdate";
-        btn_dbUpdate.Size = new Size(270, 34);
+        btn_dbUpdate.Size = new Size(286, 34);
         btn_dbUpdate.Text = "UpdateDB";
         btn_dbUpdate.Click += btn_dbUpdate_Click;
         // 
         // btn_recalcAll
         // 
         btn_recalcAll.Name = "btn_recalcAll";
-        btn_recalcAll.Size = new Size(270, 34);
+        btn_recalcAll.Size = new Size(286, 34);
         btn_recalcAll.Text = "Recalculate All Traders";
         btn_recalcAll.Click += btn_recalcAll_Click;
         // 
@@ -385,6 +230,8 @@ partial class MainForm
         Controls.Add(toolStrip1);
         Controls.Add(menuStrip1);
         MainMenuStrip = menuStrip1;
+        MaximumSize = new Size(1886, 1088);
+        MinimumSize = new Size(1886, 1088);
         Name = "MainForm";
         Text = "Predictalytics";
         toolStrip1.ResumeLayout(false);