diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Application.Tests/Services/RiskMetricsCalculatorTests.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Application.Tests/Services/RiskMetricsCalculatorTests.cs new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5ce44d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Application.Tests/Services/RiskMetricsCalculatorTests.cs @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +using System; +using System.Collections.Generic; +using Predictalytics.Application.Services; +using Xunit; + +namespace Predictalytics.Application.Tests.Services; + +public class RiskMetricsCalculatorTests +{ + private static List<(DateTime, decimal)> Curve(params decimal[] pnls) + { + var list = new List<(DateTime, decimal)>(); + var d = new DateTime(2026, 01, 01, 0, 0, 0, DateTimeKind.Utc); + foreach (var p in pnls) { list.Add((d, p)); d = d.AddDays(1); } + return list; + } + + [Fact] + public void Empty_ReturnsZeros() + { + var m = RiskMetricsCalculator.Compute(new List<(DateTime, decimal)>()); + Assert.Equal(0m, m.MaxDrawdownUsd); + Assert.Equal(0m, m.PnlVolatilityUsd); + Assert.Equal(0, m.LongestLosingStreakDays); + } + + [Fact] + public void MonotonicUp_HasNoDrawdownNoStreak() + { + // Steady climb 0 -> 10 -> 20 -> 30: the ideal, most-copyable curve. + var m = RiskMetricsCalculator.Compute(Curve(0, 10, 20, 30)); + Assert.Equal(0m, m.MaxDrawdownUsd); + Assert.Equal(0, m.LongestLosingStreakDays); + } + + [Fact] + public void DipFromPeak_MeasuresPeakToTroughDrawdown() + { + // Peak 100, trough 40 -> max drawdown 60. Ends back at 90. + var m = RiskMetricsCalculator.Compute(Curve(0, 100, 70, 40, 90)); + Assert.Equal(60m, m.MaxDrawdownUsd); + } + + [Fact] + public void LongestLosingStreak_CountsConsecutiveDownDays() + { + // deltas: +100, -30, -30, -30, +50 -> 3 consecutive losing days + var m = RiskMetricsCalculator.Compute(Curve(0, 100, 70, 40, 10, 60)); + Assert.Equal(3, m.LongestLosingStreakDays); + } + + [Fact] + public void Volatility_IsZeroForConstantDailyGain_PositiveForBumpyPath() + { + // Constant +10/day -> zero volatility of daily returns. + var smooth = RiskMetricsCalculator.Compute(Curve(0, 10, 20, 30, 40)); + Assert.Equal(0m, smooth.PnlVolatilityUsd); + + // Same endpoint (+40) but a bumpy path -> positive volatility. + var bumpy = RiskMetricsCalculator.Compute(Curve(0, 50, 10, 60, 40)); + Assert.True(bumpy.PnlVolatilityUsd > 0m); + } +} diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Application/DTOs/TraderDto.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Application/DTOs/TraderDto.cs index 249ec1b..8833d43 100644 --- a/src/Predictalytics.Application/DTOs/TraderDto.cs +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Application/DTOs/TraderDto.cs @@ -63,7 +63,13 @@ public record TraderDetailDto( decimal MedianLossReturnPct, decimal AvgLossReturnPct, decimal? ProfitFactor, - + + // H1 Risk-adjusted return (equity-curve smoothness = copyability) + decimal MaxDrawdownUsd, + decimal PnlVolatilityUsd, + int LongestLosingStreakDays, + decimal? ReturnOverMaxDrawdown, + int Rank, bool IsOnWatchlist, DateTime CreatedAt, diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Application/Services/AnalyticsService.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Application/Services/AnalyticsService.cs index 7d6b808..ceff508 100644 --- a/src/Predictalytics.Application/Services/AnalyticsService.cs +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Application/Services/AnalyticsService.cs @@ -255,6 +255,7 @@ public class AnalyticsService : IAnalyticsService s?.ActivityScore ?? 0, s?.QualityScore ?? 0, s?.VolumeScore ?? 0, s?.TimingScore ?? 0, s?.CombinedScore ?? 0, a?.CopytradingScore ?? 0, a?.CopytradingQualityScore ?? 0, a?.CopytradingCopyabilityScore ?? 0, a?.MedianWinReturnPct ?? 0, a?.AvgWinReturnPct ?? 0, a?.MedianLossReturnPct ?? 0, a?.AvgLossReturnPct ?? 0, a?.ProfitFactor, + a?.MaxDrawdownUsd ?? 0, a?.PnlVolatilityUsd ?? 0, a?.LongestLosingStreakDays ?? 0, a?.ReturnOverMaxDrawdown, s?.Rank ?? 0, wl != null, trader.CreatedAt, trader.LastPolledAt, trader.AiStrategySummary, trades.Select(MapTradeDto).ToList(), diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Application/Services/RiskMetricsCalculator.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Application/Services/RiskMetricsCalculator.cs new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bee8eb5 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Application/Services/RiskMetricsCalculator.cs @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +namespace Predictalytics.Application.Services; + +/// Risk/smoothness metrics derived from a trader's daily equity curve. +public readonly record struct RiskMetrics( + decimal MaxDrawdownUsd, + decimal PnlVolatilityUsd, + int LongestLosingStreakDays); + +/// +/// Computes how SMOOTH a trader's path to their PnL was — a core copyability signal. +/// Two traders with identical final PnL are very differently copyable if one got there +/// steadily and the other via a violent up-and-down ride: the copier who joins mid-drawdown +/// of the volatile trader may never recover. Pure function, no DB/API access. +/// +public static class RiskMetricsCalculator +{ + /// Daily cumulative PnL points, ascending by date. + public static RiskMetrics Compute(IReadOnlyList<(DateTime Date, decimal TotalPnl)> snapshotsAsc) + { + if (snapshotsAsc is null || snapshotsAsc.Count == 0) + return new RiskMetrics(0m, 0m, 0); + + // Max drawdown: largest peak-to-trough drop of the cumulative-PnL curve (in USD). + decimal peak = snapshotsAsc[0].TotalPnl; + decimal maxDrawdown = 0m; + foreach (var s in snapshotsAsc) + { + if (s.TotalPnl > peak) peak = s.TotalPnl; + var dd = peak - s.TotalPnl; + if (dd > maxDrawdown) maxDrawdown = dd; + } + + // Day-over-day PnL deltas -> volatility (population stddev) + longest losing streak. + var deltas = new List(snapshotsAsc.Count); + int streak = 0, longestStreak = 0; + for (int i = 1; i < snapshotsAsc.Count; i++) + { + var d = snapshotsAsc[i].TotalPnl - snapshotsAsc[i - 1].TotalPnl; + deltas.Add(d); + if (d < 0) + { + streak++; + if (streak > longestStreak) longestStreak = streak; + } + else + { + streak = 0; + } + } + + decimal volatility = 0m; + if (deltas.Count > 0) + { + var mean = deltas.Average(); + var variance = deltas.Sum(x => (x - mean) * (x - mean)) / deltas.Count; + volatility = (decimal)System.Math.Sqrt((double)variance); + } + + return new RiskMetrics( + System.Math.Round(maxDrawdown, 2), + System.Math.Round(volatility, 2), + longestStreak); + } +} diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/AnalyticsEntities.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/AnalyticsEntities.cs index 3e1888a..bb6ac5e 100644 --- a/src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/AnalyticsEntities.cs +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Domain/Entities/AnalyticsEntities.cs @@ -55,6 +55,15 @@ public class TraderAnalytics public decimal MedianPostFillDriftPct { get; set; } public decimal NetEdgeAfterFeesPct { get; set; } + // H1 Risk-adjusted return (from the daily equity curve; smoothness = copyability) + public decimal MaxDrawdownUsd { get; set; } + public decimal PnlVolatilityUsd { get; set; } + public int LongestLosingStreakDays { get; set; } + + /// Calmar-like: profit per unit of worst drawdown. Null when there was no drawdown. + public decimal? ReturnOverMaxDrawdown => + MaxDrawdownUsd > 0 ? System.Math.Round(OverallPnL / MaxDrawdownUsd, 2) : null; + // Navigation public virtual Trader Trader { get; set; } = null!; } diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/20260720071306_AddRiskAdjustedMetrics.Designer.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/20260720071306_AddRiskAdjustedMetrics.Designer.cs new file mode 100644 index 0000000..be64d97 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/20260720071306_AddRiskAdjustedMetrics.Designer.cs @@ -0,0 +1,1284 @@ +// +using System; +using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore; +using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Infrastructure; +using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Metadata; +using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Migrations; +using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Storage.ValueConversion; +using Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Data; + +#nullable disable + +namespace Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Migrations +{ + [DbContext(typeof(AppDbContext))] + [Migration("20260720071306_AddRiskAdjustedMetrics")] + partial class AddRiskAdjustedMetrics + { + /// + protected override void BuildTargetModel(ModelBuilder modelBuilder) + { +#pragma warning disable 612, 618 + modelBuilder + .HasAnnotation("ProductVersion", "8.0.11") + .HasAnnotation("Relational:MaxIdentifierLength", 64); + + MySqlModelBuilderExtensions.AutoIncrementColumns(modelBuilder); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Alert", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("CreatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("IsRead") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("Message") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(4096) + .HasColumnType("varchar(4096)"); + + b.Property("Platform") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Severity") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Title") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(512) + .HasColumnType("varchar(512)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Type") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("CreatedAt"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId"); + + b.ToTable("Alerts"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.BackgroundJob", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("CompletedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("CreatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("ErrorMessage") + .HasMaxLength(4096) + .HasColumnType("varchar(4096)"); + + b.Property("JobType") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(64) + .HasColumnType("varchar(64)"); + + b.Property("StartedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("Status") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(64) + .HasColumnType("varchar(64)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("JobType"); + + b.HasIndex("Status"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId"); + + b.ToTable("BackgroundJobs"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Event", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("CreatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("DbCreatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("Description") + .HasMaxLength(4096) + .HasColumnType("varchar(4096)"); + + b.Property("EndDate") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("ImageUrl") + .HasMaxLength(1024) + .HasColumnType("varchar(1024)"); + + b.Property("IsActive") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("IsClosed") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("LastUpdatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("Platform") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("PlatformEventId") + .HasColumnType("bigint"); + + b.Property("Slug") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(512) + .HasColumnType("varchar(512)"); + + b.Property("StartDate") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("Tags") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(1024) + .HasColumnType("varchar(1024)"); + + b.Property("Title") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(1024) + .HasColumnType("varchar(1024)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("Platform", "PlatformEventId") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("Events"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Market", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("Category") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(64) + .HasColumnType("varchar(64)"); + + b.Property("ClosedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("ConditionId") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(256) + .HasColumnType("varchar(256)"); + + b.Property("CreatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("DbCreatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("Description") + .HasMaxLength(4096) + .HasColumnType("varchar(4096)"); + + b.Property("EndDate") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("EventId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("FeeRateBps") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("ImageUrl") + .HasMaxLength(1024) + .HasColumnType("varchar(1024)"); + + b.Property("IsNegRisk") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("IsResolved") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("LastTradesUpdatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("LastUpdatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("Liquidity") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("MarketSlug") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(512) + .HasColumnType("varchar(512)"); + + b.Property("Platform") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("PlatformMarketId") + .HasColumnType("bigint"); + + b.Property("Question") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(1024) + .HasColumnType("varchar(1024)"); + + b.Property("QuestionId") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(256) + .HasColumnType("varchar(256)"); + + b.Property("ResolutionOutcome") + .HasColumnType("longtext"); + + b.Property("StartDate") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("Subcategory") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(128) + .HasColumnType("varchar(128)"); + + b.Property("Volume") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("Volume24h") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("EventId"); + + b.HasIndex("Platform", "PlatformMarketId") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("Markets"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketAnalytics", b => + { + b.Property("MarketId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("AverageTradeSize") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("BotActivityScore") + .HasPrecision(8, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(8,4)"); + + b.Property("LastCalculatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("UniqueTradersCount") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.HasKey("MarketId"); + + b.ToTable("MarketAnalytics"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketOutcome", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("CurrentPrice") + .HasPrecision(18, 8) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,8)"); + + b.Property("Label") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(256) + .HasColumnType("varchar(256)"); + + b.Property("MarketId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("OutcomeIndex") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("TokenId") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(256) + .HasColumnType("varchar(256)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("TokenId"); + + b.HasIndex("MarketId", "OutcomeIndex") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("MarketOutcomes"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketOutcomePriceSnapshot", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("MarketOutcomeId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Price") + .HasPrecision(10, 6) + .HasColumnType("decimal(10,6)"); + + b.Property("Timestamp") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("MarketOutcomeId", "Timestamp"); + + b.ToTable("MarketOutcomePriceSnapshots"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.PlatformConfig", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("BaseUrl") + .HasMaxLength(1024) + .HasColumnType("varchar(1024)"); + + b.Property("CreatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("DisplayName") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(256) + .HasColumnType("varchar(256)"); + + b.Property("IsActive") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("Name") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(128) + .HasColumnType("varchar(128)"); + + b.Property("SettingsJson") + .HasColumnType("longtext"); + + b.Property("UpdatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.ToTable("PlatformConfigs"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trade", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("bigint"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("AggregatedCount") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Amount") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("AssetId") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(80) + .HasColumnType("varchar(80)"); + + b.Property("DbMarketId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("ExecutedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("IsContextEnriched") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("MarketId") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(66) + .HasColumnType("varchar(66)"); + + b.Property("MarketOutcomeId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Outcome") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(128) + .HasColumnType("varchar(128)"); + + b.Property("OutcomeIndex") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Platform") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("PlatformTradeId") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(256) + .HasColumnType("varchar(256)"); + + b.Property("PostTradePrice1m") + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("PreTradePrice1m") + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("Price") + .HasPrecision(18, 6) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,6)"); + + b.Property("Side") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Size") + .HasPrecision(14, 6) + .HasColumnType("decimal(14,6)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("TransactionHash") + .HasMaxLength(66) + .HasColumnType("varchar(66)"); + + b.Property("UsdcSize") + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,6)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("AssetId"); + + b.HasIndex("DbMarketId"); + + b.HasIndex("ExecutedAt"); + + b.HasIndex("MarketOutcomeId"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId"); + + b.HasIndex("Platform", "PlatformTradeId") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("Trades"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TradeContext", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("bigint"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("EstimatedOrderType") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(32) + .HasColumnType("varchar(32)"); + + b.Property("EstimatedSlippage") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("FollowerFillPrice10s") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("FollowerFillPrice60s") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("PriceAfter1m") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("PriceBefore1m") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("TradeId") + .HasColumnType("bigint"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("TradeId") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("TradeContexts"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("AiStrategySummary") + .HasColumnType("longtext"); + + b.Property("AiStrategyUpdatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("CreatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("DisplayName") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(256) + .HasColumnType("varchar(256)"); + + b.Property("IngestMode") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("IsAutoDiscovered") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("IsInitialImportComplete") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("IsSuspectedBot") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("LastAnalyzedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("LastApiErrorAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("LastPolledAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("LastTradesUpdatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("ManualPriorityOverride") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("MasterStatus") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Notes") + .HasColumnType("longtext"); + + b.Property("Platform") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("PlatformUserId") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(128) + .HasColumnType("varchar(128)"); + + b.Property("Strategy") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Tier") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("TotalPnl") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("TotalTrades") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("WinRate") + .HasPrecision(8, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(8,4)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("Platform", "PlatformUserId") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("Traders"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderAnalytics", b => + { + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("AvgLossReturnPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("AvgWinReturnPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("CopytradingCopyabilityScore") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("CopytradingQualityScore") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("CopytradingScore") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("CurrentBalance") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("EstimatedBankroll") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("LastCalculatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("LongestLosingStreakDays") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("MaxDrawdownUsd") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("MedianHoldDurationHours") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("MedianLossReturnPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("MedianMarketVolumeUsd") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("MedianPostFillDriftPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("MedianWinReturnPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("NetEdgeAfterFeesPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("OverallPnL") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("OverallWinRate") + .HasPrecision(8, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(8,4)"); + + b.Property("P50PositionSize") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("P90PositionSize") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("PnL24h") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("PnL30d") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("PnL7d") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("PnlVolatilityUsd") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("PriceBandProfileJson") + .HasColumnType("longtext"); + + b.Property("ProfitFactor") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("Trades30d") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("TradesPerWeek") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("WinRate24h") + .HasPrecision(8, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(8,4)"); + + b.Property("WinRate30d") + .HasPrecision(8, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(8,4)"); + + b.Property("WinRate7d") + .HasPrecision(8, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(8,4)"); + + b.HasKey("TraderId"); + + b.ToTable("TraderAnalytics"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderCategoryPerformance", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("Category") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(64) + .HasColumnType("varchar(64)"); + + b.Property("Subcategory") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(128) + .HasColumnType("varchar(128)"); + + b.Property("TotalInvested") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + + b.Property("TotalPnL") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("TotalTrades") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("TotalVolume") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("WinningTrades") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId", "Category", "Subcategory") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("TraderCategoryPerformances"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderDailySnapshot", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("CurrentBalance") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("Date") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("TotalPnl") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId", "Date") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("TraderDailySnapshots"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderPosition", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("AvgCost") + .HasPrecision(10, 6) + .HasColumnType("decimal(10,6)"); + + b.Property("IsHistoryPruned") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("LastAppliedTradeId") + .HasColumnType("bigint"); + + b.Property("LastTradeExecutedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("LastUpdatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("MarketOutcomeId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("RealizedPnl") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("SharesHeld") + .HasPrecision(14, 6) + .HasColumnType("decimal(14,6)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("MarketOutcomeId"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId", "MarketOutcomeId") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("TraderPositions"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderScore", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("ActivityScore") + .HasPrecision(5, 2) + .HasColumnType("decimal(5,2)"); + + b.Property("CalculatedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("CombinedScore") + .HasPrecision(5, 2) + .HasColumnType("decimal(5,2)"); + + b.Property("QualityScore") + .HasPrecision(5, 2) + .HasColumnType("decimal(5,2)"); + + b.Property("Rank") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("TimingScore") + .HasPrecision(5, 2) + .HasColumnType("decimal(5,2)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("VolumeScore") + .HasPrecision(5, 2) + .HasColumnType("decimal(5,2)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("TraderScores"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderTrait", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("ComputedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("Trait") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(64) + .HasColumnType("varchar(64)"); + + b.Property("Value") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId", "Trait") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("TraderTraits"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderWindowMetrics", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("AvgReturnPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("ClosedMarkets") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("ComputedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("MedianLossReturnPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("MedianWinReturnPct") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("ProfitFactor") + .HasPrecision(18, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("WinRate") + .HasPrecision(8, 4) + .HasColumnType("decimal(8,4)"); + + b.Property("WindowEnd") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("WindowStart") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId", "WindowStart", "WindowEnd") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("TraderWindowMetrics"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.WatchlistEntry", b => + { + b.Property("Id") + .ValueGeneratedOnAdd() + .HasColumnType("int"); + + MySqlPropertyBuilderExtensions.UseMySqlIdentityColumn(b.Property("Id")); + + b.Property("AddedAt") + .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + + b.Property("AlertsEnabled") + .HasColumnType("tinyint(1)"); + + b.Property("Label") + .IsRequired() + .HasMaxLength(256) + .HasColumnType("varchar(256)"); + + b.Property("Notes") + .HasColumnType("longtext"); + + b.Property("TraderId") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.HasKey("Id"); + + b.HasIndex("TraderId") + .IsUnique(); + + b.ToTable("WatchlistEntries"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Alert", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany() + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.SetNull); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.BackgroundJob", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany() + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.SetNull); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Market", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Event", "Event") + .WithMany("Markets") + .HasForeignKey("EventId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Event"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketAnalytics", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Market", "Market") + .WithOne("Analytics") + .HasForeignKey("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketAnalytics", "MarketId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Market"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketOutcome", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Market", "Market") + .WithMany("Outcomes") + .HasForeignKey("MarketId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Market"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketOutcomePriceSnapshot", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketOutcome", "MarketOutcome") + .WithMany() + .HasForeignKey("MarketOutcomeId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("MarketOutcome"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trade", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Market", "DbMarket") + .WithMany() + .HasForeignKey("DbMarketId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.SetNull); + + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketOutcome", "MarketOutcome") + .WithMany() + .HasForeignKey("MarketOutcomeId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.SetNull); + + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany("Trades") + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("DbMarket"); + + b.Navigation("MarketOutcome"); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TradeContext", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trade", "Trade") + .WithOne("Context") + .HasForeignKey("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TradeContext", "TradeId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Trade"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderAnalytics", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithOne("Analytics") + .HasForeignKey("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderAnalytics", "TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderCategoryPerformance", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany("CategoryPerformances") + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderDailySnapshot", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany() + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderPosition", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.MarketOutcome", "MarketOutcome") + .WithMany() + .HasForeignKey("MarketOutcomeId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany("Positions") + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("MarketOutcome"); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderScore", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithOne("CurrentScore") + .HasForeignKey("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderScore", "TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderTrait", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany("Traits") + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.TraderWindowMetrics", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany() + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.WatchlistEntry", b => + { + b.HasOne("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", "Trader") + .WithMany("WatchlistEntries") + .HasForeignKey("TraderId") + .OnDelete(DeleteBehavior.Cascade) + .IsRequired(); + + b.Navigation("Trader"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Event", b => + { + b.Navigation("Markets"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Market", b => + { + b.Navigation("Analytics"); + + b.Navigation("Outcomes"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trade", b => + { + b.Navigation("Context"); + }); + + modelBuilder.Entity("Predictalytics.Domain.Entities.Trader", b => + { + b.Navigation("Analytics"); + + b.Navigation("CategoryPerformances"); + + b.Navigation("CurrentScore"); + + b.Navigation("Positions"); + + b.Navigation("Trades"); + + b.Navigation("Traits"); + + b.Navigation("WatchlistEntries"); + }); +#pragma warning restore 612, 618 + } + } +} diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/20260720071306_AddRiskAdjustedMetrics.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/20260720071306_AddRiskAdjustedMetrics.cs new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bc34ae4 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/20260720071306_AddRiskAdjustedMetrics.cs @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +using Microsoft.EntityFrameworkCore.Migrations; + +#nullable disable + +namespace Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Migrations +{ + /// + public partial class AddRiskAdjustedMetrics : Migration + { + /// + protected override void Up(MigrationBuilder migrationBuilder) + { + migrationBuilder.AddColumn( + name: "LongestLosingStreakDays", + table: "TraderAnalytics", + type: "int", + nullable: false, + defaultValue: 0); + + migrationBuilder.AddColumn( + name: "MaxDrawdownUsd", + table: "TraderAnalytics", + type: "decimal(65,30)", + nullable: false, + defaultValue: 0m); + + migrationBuilder.AddColumn( + name: "PnlVolatilityUsd", + table: "TraderAnalytics", + type: "decimal(65,30)", + nullable: false, + defaultValue: 0m); + } + + /// + protected override void Down(MigrationBuilder migrationBuilder) + { + migrationBuilder.DropColumn( + name: "LongestLosingStreakDays", + table: "TraderAnalytics"); + + migrationBuilder.DropColumn( + name: "MaxDrawdownUsd", + table: "TraderAnalytics"); + + migrationBuilder.DropColumn( + name: "PnlVolatilityUsd", + table: "TraderAnalytics"); + } + } +} diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/AppDbContextModelSnapshot.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/AppDbContextModelSnapshot.cs index fc0128b..4ac709f 100644 --- a/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/AppDbContextModelSnapshot.cs +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Migrations/AppDbContextModelSnapshot.cs @@ -670,6 +670,12 @@ namespace Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Migrations b.Property("LastCalculatedAt") .HasColumnType("datetime(6)"); + b.Property("LongestLosingStreakDays") + .HasColumnType("int"); + + b.Property("MaxDrawdownUsd") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + b.Property("MedianHoldDurationHours") .HasPrecision(18, 4) .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); @@ -722,6 +728,9 @@ namespace Predictalytics.Infrastructure.Migrations .HasPrecision(18, 4) .HasColumnType("decimal(18,4)"); + b.Property("PnlVolatilityUsd") + .HasColumnType("decimal(65,30)"); + b.Property("PriceBandProfileJson") .HasColumnType("longtext"); diff --git a/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Services/PositionPnLEngine.cs b/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Services/PositionPnLEngine.cs index f2dd6ad..ecc9216 100644 --- a/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Services/PositionPnLEngine.cs +++ b/src/Predictalytics.Infrastructure/Services/PositionPnLEngine.cs @@ -361,6 +361,20 @@ public class PositionPnLEngine : IPositionPnLEngine // Count Trades30d analytics.Trades30d = trades.Where(t => t.ExecutedAt >= cutoff30d).Sum(t => t.AggregatedCount ?? 1); + // H1: Risk-adjusted return from the daily equity curve (smoothness = copyability). + // Build the series from persisted history + today's freshly computed point. + var historicalSnapshots = await _db.TraderDailySnapshots + .Where(s => s.TraderId == traderId && s.Date < today) + .OrderBy(s => s.Date) + .Select(s => new { s.Date, s.TotalPnl }) + .ToListAsync(ct); + var equitySeries = historicalSnapshots.Select(h => (h.Date, h.TotalPnl)).ToList(); + equitySeries.Add((today, overallPnl)); + var risk = Predictalytics.Application.Services.RiskMetricsCalculator.Compute(equitySeries); + analytics.MaxDrawdownUsd = risk.MaxDrawdownUsd; + analytics.PnlVolatilityUsd = risk.PnlVolatilityUsd; + analytics.LongestLosingStreakDays = risk.LongestLosingStreakDays; + // Calculate Win Rate and Return Pcts on Market level var (winRateOverall, winRate30d, winRate7d, winRate24h, medianWin, avgWin, medianLoss, avgLoss, profitFactor) =