RichardandClaude Fable 5 28e112f128 Add per-market win/loss return metrics (D2c) to FIXPLAN Teil D
Win rate alone hides the payoff profile: an arb grinder (95% wins at +2%)
and a longshot holder (25% wins at +400%) need entirely different copy
strategies. D2c adds median+avg return of won AND lost closed markets,
profit factor, UI cards, and two derived traits (thin_margin_wins,
high_payoff_wins). Median leads (outlier-robust), the loss side is
mandatory — high win rates with rare total losses (resolution farming)
are exactly what the win rate alone obscures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-12 10:30:28 +02:00
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