RichardandClaude Opus 4.8 eaccdadddf H2: strategy-fingerprint metrics (conviction/sizing edge + category concentration)
Two deeper analyses, both pure from existing data (no new API cost):
- ConvictionEdgePct: return% of the biggest-bet third minus the smallest-bet
  third of closed markets. Positive => sizing carries information (copy
  size-weighted); negative => overbets losers (red flag). CalculateMarketWinRates
  now emits per-market (invested, returnPct) pairs consumed by
  StrategyMetricsCalculator.ComputeConvictionEdge.
- CategoryConcentration: Herfindahl index of category volume shares
  (specialist vs generalist), from the category-performance dict.
Stored on TraderAnalytics, exposed on TraderDetailDto. Migration
AddStrategyFingerprintMetrics. +7 unit tests (70 total, 1 skip).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-23 09:17:58 +02:00
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