Neues Projekt Predictalytics.Hosting nimmt auf, was bisher im
windows-gebundenen WinFormsHost feststeckte, aber portabel ist:
- PredictalyticsHost (aus EmbeddedWebServer): Kestrel- und Worker-Lifecycle,
Wartungsaktionen, DB-Groesse. Meldet Zustandswechsel ueber StateChanged.
- PredictalyticsOptions (aus AppSettings): ohne WinForms-Bezug. Die
System.ComponentModel-Attribute sind plattformneutral und bleiben, damit
das PropertyGrid Gruppen und Beschreibungen behaelt.
- LoggingSetup (aus Program.cs): Serilog-Aufbau, Terminal-Sink als optionale
Action statt fester RichTextBox.
- LicenseGuard: GUI-frei. Periodische Revalidierung ueber PeriodicTimer statt
WinForms-Timer, Abbruch ueber Callback statt Application.Exit. Der
interaktive Dialogaufruf bleibt als LicenseGate im WinForms-Host.
- WatchdogHeartbeatService unveraendert verschoben.
Infrastructure: RichTextBoxSink -> DelegateSink umbenannt (war nie
WinForms-abhaengig, nur missverstaendlich benannt).
Einstellungen liegen jetzt unter %APPDATA%/Predictalytics bzw.
~/.config/Predictalytics statt neben der Programmdatei, mit einmaliger
Uebernahme aus dem alten Ort. Das Installationsverzeichnis ist unter Linux
ueblicherweise nicht beschreibbar.
wwwroot wird ueber einen Content-Eintrag neben die Programmdatei kopiert;
die frueheren Pfad-Heuristiken entfallen.
Hosting und WinFormsHost nutzen Microsoft.NET.Sdk statt Sdk.Web: der Web-SDK
globbt wwwroot automatisch als Static Web Asset und kollidiert mit dem
Content-Eintrag. WebApplication kommt ueber FrameworkReference.
Neu konfigurierbar (verhaltensgleiche Defaults): WebserverHost fuer die
Kestrel-Bind-Adresse, DbSslMode fuer die MySQL-Verschluesselung.
explorer.exe-Aufrufe durch ProcessStartInfo mit UseShellExecute ersetzt —
funktioniert unter Windows und Linux.
Build: 0 Fehler. Tests: 100 bestanden, 0 Fehler, 1 uebersprungen.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Zielframework aller Projekte auf net10.0 (WinFormsHost: net10.0-windows),
zentral in Directory.Build.props statt je csproj. SatelliteResourceLanguages
ebenfalls zentralisiert.
Neue Directory.Packages.props mit ManagePackageVersionsCentrally: 21 Pakete,
Versionsangaben aus allen csproj entfernt.
EF Core bleibt bewusst auf 9.0.18 mit Pomelo 9.0.0. Pomelo hat keine
EF-Core-10-Version; 9.0.0 pinnt EntityFrameworkCore.Relational auf
[9.0.0, 9.0.999]. Die EF-9-Pakete zielen auf net8.0 und laufen auf der
net10.0-Runtime. Begruendung als Kommentar in Directory.Packages.props.
Uebrige Pakete auf aktuellen Stand: Swashbuckle 10.2.3 (ohne Bruchstellen),
Serilog 4.4.0, Microsoft.Extensions 10.0.10, Test-SDK 18.8.1, coverlet 10.0.1.
Sicherheits-Pin: SQLitePCLRaw 2.1.12 statt transitiv 2.1.10
(GHSA-2m69-gcr7-jv3q, High). Dazu CentralPackageTransitivePinningEnabled.
Build: 0 Fehler, 8 Warnungen (alle vorbestehend).
Tests: 100 bestanden, 0 Fehler, 1 uebersprungen, Testhost net10.0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Vorarbeiten fuer die Linux-/NET-10-Portierung (siehe docs/PLAN-Linux-Portierung.md).
DateTime.TryParse ohne DateTimeStyles liefert bei Z-Zeitstempeln Kind=Local und
rechnet in Lokalzeit um. An 13 Stellen in PolymarketProvider und LimitlessProvider
wurden so ISO-Zeitstempel der Plattform-APIs eingelesen, waehrend der Fallback
derselben Zuweisungen (DateTime.UtcNow) korrektes UTC schrieb - die Spalten
enthielten also gemischt verschobene und korrekte Werte. Auf einem Server mit
TZ=UTC haette derselbe Code andere Werte erzeugt als unter Windows.
Neuer Helfer Infrastructure/Helpers/DateParsing.cs kapselt das Parsen mit
InvariantCulture und AdjustToUniversal|AssumeUniversal; alle Fundstellen umgestellt.
Ausserdem:
- LimitlessProvider: Volume-Parsing auf InvariantCulture umgestellt
- EmbeddedWebServer: hartkodierten j:\-Absolutpfad als wwwroot-Fallback entfernt
Ein Backfill der Altdaten erfolgt bewusst nicht.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
license.mhdf.de leitet inzwischen http->https um. .NET wandelt beim
Folgen eines Redirects ein POST in ein GET um; der Server antwortet auf
GET /validate mit 405. Das SDK wertet jeden Nicht-2xx-Status als
"Server unerreichbar", faellt in den Offline-Fallback und meldet
NoLicense statt des echten Grundes - die Aktivierung war damit auf
frischen Installationen ohne Cache unmoeglich.
Nebeneffekt der Korrektur: die BasicAuth-Credentials gingen bisher im
Klartext ueber die Leitung. DEPLOYMENT.md fordert ohnehin TLS.
Verifiziert mit geleertem Cache: Erstaktivierung und Revalidierung
liefern beide Valid.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
#1 increment 2: cluster the co-movement graph + network visualization
Completes the smart-money discovery lever beyond the per-seed list:
- Pure CoMovementGraphBuilder (Application): links wallets by shared timely
co-entries and clusters the graph via union-find (connected components).
- GET /api/co-movement/graph builds the graph over copy-relevant + insider
wallets and weights each node by an "informed share" — how often the wallet
entered before a big favorable price move (from stored price snapshots,
graceful when absent). This is the "co-move before price moves" signal.
- UI: a new "Netzwerk" page rendering an SVG cluster graph (node size = score,
color = cluster, gold ring = insider, green ring = informed leader);
click a node opens the trader.
- Tests: min-edge-weight, window filtering, connected-component clustering.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
#4 Copy-portfolio: diversified master mix instead of single-score ranking
The leaderboard ranks single scores, but the top N can be three correlated
weather bots. Suggest a de-clumped set instead:
- Pure CopyPortfolioBuilder (Application): greedily picks high-scoring masters
while enforcing a per-category cap and a max pairwise correlation; reports who
was dropped for correlation vs the category cap.
- GET /api/portfolio/suggest?size=8&maxPerCategory=2&maxSimilarity=0.6 builds the
position-overlap similarity (signed market sets) among copy-relevant masters
and runs the diversifier. New PortfolioEndpoints group.
- UI: a "Copy-Portfolio" nav page — the diversified picks with category, score,
copyability, PnL and the pick reason, plus a funnel summary (candidates /
dropped for correlation / dropped for category cap).
- Tests: top-score order, category cap, correlation drop, size limit.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
- Shutdown-Event sendet stopped_graceful statt stopping: der Server
kennt "stopping" im Router, aber event_log.kind ist ein ENUM ohne
diesen Wert. Folge war HTTP 500 nach dem Zustandswechsel, das Event
fehlte in der Historie.
- Default-Source auf "Predictalytics" korrigiert (Schreibweise des
bereits angelegten Monitors auf dem Server).
Heartbeat, Metrics-Payload, Lizenzvalidierung und der Startpfad ueber
den Cache sind end-to-end gegen die Produktivserver getestet.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Bindet die beiden neuen Betriebsprojekte an:
- WatchdogHeartbeatService: periodischer POST /api/heartbeat an
watchdog.mhdf.de (Dead-Man's-Switch), stopping-Event beim Beenden,
Konfiguration ueber AppSettings-Kategorie "Watchdog". Fehler sind
best effort und beeintraechtigen die App nie.
- LicenseGuard + LicenseDialog: Lizenzpruefung vor dem Start der
MainForm, 12h-Revalidierung zur Laufzeit, Checksum-Haertung.
Produkt-Slug/Endpoint/Public-Key sind einkompiliert.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
#1 Smart-money co-movement detection (discovery increment 1)
The correlation endpoint was only pairwise + position-overlap based. Add timing-
based, one-to-many co-movement discovery: for a seed trader, find the wallets
that repeatedly enter the SAME outcomes within a time window — surfacing new
informed traders rather than just ranking known ones.
- Pure CoMovementCalculator (Application): ranks candidate wallets by shared
co-entered markets; positive AvgLeadHours = the wallet tends to move BEFORE the
seed (the informed-trader signal).
- GET /api/traders/{id}/co-movement?windowHours=48&minShared=3 (bounds the seed
to its last 500 buys) + CoMovingWalletDto.
- UI: a co-movement card on the trader detail page listing the top related
wallets with shared-market count and lead/lag (green when they move first).
- Tests: min-shared threshold + window filtering, lead sign, ranking order.
Next increment: cluster the co-movement graph + a visual; weight co-entries that
precede significant price moves. Endpoint is on-demand per seed for now.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
#5 Edge-freshness: is a master edge current or stale?
Compares the recent out-of-sample window (last 60d) against the older one
(day 60-180) — both already produced per run by the analytics worker, so no
worker changes and no schema change.
- Pure EdgeFreshnessCalculator (Application): Fresh / Stable / Fading /
Insufficient + a 0-100 freshness score. Fading when return/market drops past a
threshold or a once-strong profit factor collapses below break-even.
- GET /api/traders/{id}/edge-freshness reads the two windows and computes it.
- UI: a colored edge-freshness badge on the trader detail page
(🟢 frisch / 🟡 stabil / 🔴 verblasst) with the return delta and market counts.
- Tests: 5 scenarios (insufficient, fresh, return collapse, PF collapse, stable).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
#3 Strategy-drift alarm: fire + surface drift off the fingerprint history
Turns the drift foundation into an actual alarm that protects copiers:
- New AlertType.StrategyDrift (severity 3).
- FingerprintSnapshotService.GetDriftedTradersAsync lists every master whose
latest fingerprint drifted from its baseline.
- AlertService.EvaluateStrategyDriftAsync (run from EvaluateAlertsAsync) fires a
StrategyDrift alert per drifted master, summarizing the changed dimensions.
Drift is slow-moving, so alerts are de-duplicated per trader over a 7-day
cooldown via new IAlertRepository.ExistsRecentAsync.
- UI: 📉 icon in the alert feed + a drift banner on the trader detail page
(fetches /fingerprint-drift, lists the drifted dimensions).
- Test: drift alert fires once then dedups within the cooldown.
No schema change (reuses TraderFingerprintSnapshots + Alerts).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
Fingerprint-snapshot foundation + strategy-drift calculator (#3/#5 groundwork)
TraderAnalytics is one row per trader, overwritten every recalculation, so there
is no history to detect strategy drift (#3) or edge fade (#5) against. Add the
missing time series:
- TraderFingerprintSnapshot entity (score, category concentration, conviction,
P50/P90 sizing, hold duration, trades/week, category-mix JSON, trait-set JSON)
+ migration AddFingerprintSnapshots (indexed by TraderId, CapturedAt).
- FingerprintSnapshotService (Infrastructure): CaptureDueAsync snapshots every
copy-relevant trader (CopytradingScore >= 40) at most ~once/day; wired into
ScoringAndAlertsWorker. GetDriftAsync reads latest-vs-baseline drift.
- FingerprintDriftCalculator (pure, Application): flags score drop, concentration
shift, sizing jump, conviction sign-flip, category-mix TVD, trait-set change.
- GET /api/traders/{id}/fingerprint-drift?baselineDays=14 read endpoint.
- Tests: drift calculator (4 scenarios) + capture service (copy-relevance,
throttle, drift read).
This is the shared foundation both #3 (drift alarm) and #5 (edge freshness) build on.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
Rework insider feed: system-level InsiderWatch + dedicated view (no watchlist writes)
Watchlists will become per-user once the product is offered commercially, so the
system must not auto-add/remove traders there. Decouple insider tracking entirely:
- New system-owned entity InsiderWatch (TraderId unique, FirstDetectedAt,
LastAlertedTradeAt) + IInsiderWatchRepository; migration AddInsiderWatch.
- AlertService.EvaluateInsiderWatchAsync now maintains InsiderWatch (not the
watchlist): registers each possible_insider wallet, seeds the high-water mark
at detection time, and fires one InsiderActivity alert per new trade. Dedup via
LastAlertedTradeAt.
- Dedicated "Insider" view: GET /api/traders/insiders + InsiderDto + a new
Insider-Radar page (sorted by market-surprise). Read-only, separate from watchlist.
- Revert the WatchlistEntry.LastInsiderAlertAt field + its migration (unapplied);
drop the now-unused IWatchlistRepository.UpdateAsync.
- Tests updated to assert InsiderWatch registry (and that no WatchlistEntry is created).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
Insider-Follow feed: auto-watchlist possible-insider wallets + new-trade alerts
Makes the existing possible_insider trait actionable:
- New AlertType.InsiderActivity (severity 4).
- AlertService.EvaluateInsiderWatchAsync (run from EvaluateAlertsAsync every
15 min): auto-adds every possible_insider wallet to the watchlist, then fires
one InsiderActivity alert per new trade one of them places. These wallets
trade rarely, so a single new trade is the strongest copy signal.
- Dedup + no history spam via WatchlistEntry.LastInsiderAlertAt (migration
AddWatchlistLastInsiderAlertAt); a freshly auto-added wallet is baselined at
AddedAt so backfilled trades never alert.
- Repo support: ITraderRepository.GetByTraitAsync, IWatchlistRepository.UpdateAsync.
- UI: distinct 👁 icon for insider alerts (💰 for large positions).
- Tests: auto-add-without-history-alert, alert-on-new-trade-with-dedup.
Migration auto-applies on startup (DependencyInjection.MigrateAsync).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
UI-U1/U2/U4/U5: dashboard showcases + server-side leaderboard sort
- U1: render the /api/traders/showcases sections on the dashboard as
clickable curated leaderboard cards (red_flags visually accented).
- U2: loadTraders() now sends the sort key to the API (real top-N),
take raised to 200; only name/platform stay client-sorted.
- U4: #tradersSort dropdown extended with calmar/conviction/profitfactor/
pnl30d; currentSort synced before building the query.
- U5: fix empty-state colspan 11 -> 10 (table has 10 columns).
Includes FIXPLAN-UI-Ranglisten.md documenting the plan.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
UI-U3: server-side min-winrate/min-copyability filters
Add optional minWinRate/minCopyability params to GetTradersAsync so the
leaderboard min-value filters see the full pool instead of being applied
client-side to only the first page of results. Covered by a new
AnalyticsService test (three traders, both filters).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@
- GET /api/traders/showcases: curated dashboard sections (copy-ready, smooth
operators, rising stars, high conviction, specialists, insider watch, red
flags), each encoding a selection funnel over the persisted analytics/traits.
Pure ShowcaseBuilder holds the ranking logic (+6 unit tests).
- GET /api/traders?sort=: leaderboard sort keys (pnl, pnl30d, winrate,
copytrading, calmar, conviction, profitfactor) over the loaded set.
Read-only, persisted-data-only (public-tier safe). 76 tests, 1 skip.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Two deeper analyses, both pure from existing data (no new API cost):
- ConvictionEdgePct: return% of the biggest-bet third minus the smallest-bet
third of closed markets. Positive => sizing carries information (copy
size-weighted); negative => overbets losers (red flag). CalculateMarketWinRates
now emits per-market (invested, returnPct) pairs consumed by
StrategyMetricsCalculator.ComputeConvictionEdge.
- CategoryConcentration: Herfindahl index of category volume shares
(specialist vs generalist), from the category-performance dict.
Stored on TraderAnalytics, exposed on TraderDetailDto. Migration
AddStrategyFingerprintMetrics. +7 unit tests (70 total, 1 skip).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
New RiskMetricsCalculator (pure) derives max drawdown (USD), daily-PnL volatility
and longest losing streak from the trader's TraderDailySnapshot equity curve; the
PnL engine computes them each recalc and stores them on TraderAnalytics (+ computed
ReturnOverMaxDrawdown, Calmar-like). Two traders with identical final PnL but a
smoother path are very differently copyable — this captures that. Exposed on
TraderDetailDto. Migration AddRiskAdjustedMetrics. +5 unit tests (63 total, 1 skip).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The Aggregated ingest tier bucketed trades by hour incl. the current, still-growing
hour, then upserted via ON DUPLICATE KEY UPDATE (mutable rows). The PnL engine
checkpoints positions by row Id, so a bucket that keeps growing after being applied
had its later growth silently skipped (Id <= LastAppliedTradeId).
Extract the duplicated aggregation logic from PollingWorker + TradeHistoryWorker into
TradeAggregation.AggregateCompletedHours, which only aggregates COMPLETED hours; the
current hour is deferred (re-fetched next cycle) so every persisted aggregate is
immutable. +3 unit tests.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- D1/D2/D2c: Added TraderTraits entity, TraderTraitCalculator, Market Return Metrics (MedianWin, AvgWin, etc.), and trait filters
- D3: Implemented HF-Trader Tiering via IngestMode (Full, Aggregated, SnapshotOnly) and updated TradeHistoryWorker to respect tiers
- E1-E5: Added MasterStatus to Trader, TraderWindowMetrics for rolling analytics, Fingerprint metrics (PriceBandProfile, P50/P90), Copyability aggregates (Volume, Drift, Edge)
- E6: Implemented GET /api/traders/{id}/profile and GET /api/traders/correlation
- Replaced FIXPLAN-2026-07-09.md with FIXPLAN-TODO.md and FIXPLAN-DONE.md
- Cleaned up API docs and plan to use generic terms (removed hardcoded PolyTrader references)
- Added respective EF Core Migrations
- TraderDetailDto now exposes PnL7d/WinRate7d/PnL24h/WinRate24h and
CurrentBalance — the engine has computed these all along but the API
never delivered them.
- Removed POST /api/dev/repair-db: its raw SQL referenced non-existent
columns/tables (Trades.Type/Payout, Traders.LastPositionsUpdatedAt,
table "Jobs") and would have deleted ALL TraderPositions including
pruned-history conserves. The supported repair path is the WinForms
"Recalculate All Traders" action.
- Swagger tags for Jobs and Dev groups; full endpoint reference in
docs/API.md (kept generic — external consumers like PolyTrader adapt
to our API, not vice versa).
- FIXPLAN Teil E: master-selection gap analysis as generic extensions
(profile endpoint, out-of-sample window metrics, price-band profile
with per-band win rate, stop-loss ratio, copyability aggregates with
category fees, correlation endpoint, martingale trait).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Win rate alone hides the payoff profile: an arb grinder (95% wins at +2%)
and a longshot holder (25% wins at +400%) need entirely different copy
strategies. D2c adds median+avg return of won AND lost closed markets,
profit factor, UI cards, and two derived traits (thin_margin_wins,
high_payoff_wins). Median leads (outlier-robust), the loss side is
mandatory — high win rates with rare total losses (resolution farming)
are exactly what the win rate alone obscures.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Trait filtering is now a binding requirement: trait query parameter on
GET /api/traders (EXISTS-based), GET /api/traits with counts, dropdown
plus clickable chips in the UI.
- New trait possible_insider (D2b): detection via market-surprise
likelihood under market prices (won longshots count, won favorites do
not), with base filters (rare, large stakes, resolution farmers
excluded) and a v2 roadmap (buys-before-news timing, one-shot wallets,
topic concentration, urgency/slippage, niche markets).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- MarketCategoryMapper: classify from question text (the Gamma /markets
endpoint delivers neither category nor event tags, so on-demand markets
had no signal at all), match short tokens on word boundaries ("eth" no
longer hits inside "whether", "pop" not inside "popular"), widen the
keyword lists across all categories.
- UpdateMarketFields: never overwrite a tag-derived category with an
uninformative "Other" from the on-demand path.
- PositionPnLEngine: sync Trader.TotalTrades to the actual replayed row
count — the worker-side increment counters drift (INSERT IGNORE,
deletions, historic imports) and produced Trades30d > TotalTrades.
- Tests: 14 new (mapper classification + word-boundary regression,
TotalTrades sync + Trades30d invariant, category update guard via
SQLite) — suite now 32 green + 1 skip.
- FIXPLAN Teil D for the larger rebuilds (AggregatedCount column,
TraderTraits heuristics, IngestMode tiering for ultra-HF traders).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The reconciliation worker resets position checkpoints via bulk UPDATE while
the analytics worker saves recalculated positions for the same trader —
MySQL then rejects the stale save ("Record has changed since last read").
The engine run is now retried once with a fresh context (re-reading the
concurrent change); if it still collides, it logs a warning and lets the
next cycle pick the trader up again (LastAnalyzedAt stays unset).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Shared ApiConfiguration.MapPredictalyticsEndpoints() used by both the
standalone API and the embedded WinForms Kestrel server: the embedded
host was missing /api/watchlist and /api/dev (empty watchlist page),
the standalone host was missing /api/search.
- New Development menu action "Recalculate All Traders": backfills
ResolutionOutcome from snapped outcome prices, wipes derived analytics
(snapshots, category stats, rebuildable positions), zeroes aggregates
and marks every trader for re-analysis. Raw trades untouched.
- Static files now served with Cache-Control: no-cache in both hosts,
plus ?v= cache-buster on app.js/style.css (stale browser JS masked
earlier UI fixes).
- Watchlist hardened: endpoint null-safe, real Analytics.CopytradingScore,
Platform field; repository includes Trader.Analytics; page shows a
visible error row instead of staying silently blank.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Added B6 to UMSETZUNGSPLAN.md: unbounded MarketSyncWorker re-sync of all
closed markets, watchlisted traders not exempt from auto-cleanup deletion,
full trade-history load in GetKnownPlatformTradeIdsAsync, a race condition
in MarketRepository.AddOrUpdateAsync under concurrent access, and an
early-break assumption in TradeHistoryWorker that isn't applied consistently.
No functional code changed yet — these are earmarked for Phase 2 (B3-adjacent).
- Design-time AppDbContextFactory now builds its connection string via
MySqlConnectionStringBuilder from PREDICTALYTICS_DB_* env vars instead of a
hardcoded local default, so no secret needs to live in source/config to run
migrations against any target database.
- InitialBaseline migration applied end-to-end against a fresh dev MySQL DB
and confirmed via `dotnet ef migrations list`.
Clean Architecture .NET 8 solution (Domain/Application/Infrastructure/Api/Worker/WinFormsHost)
for analyzing Polymarket traders for copytrading/strategy-replication candidates.
Includes EF Core InitialBaseline migration and DB secrets removed from source/config
in preparation for version control.
